This bear run might last 3 to 6 months with an oscillator bottom

B.TOP Mining
3 min readJun 20, 2022


Translated by Ding HAN and Yalan WANG

1.It is estimated that the bear market would go through an oscillator bottom which could last 3 to 6 months.

2.The next bull run market would start with ETH 2.0 at the end of this year. After ETH switched to POS, the outputs will drop by 90%, equivalent to BTC halving three times at the same time.

Go log in and click “SIMULATE MERGE”(simulator of 2.0 merger), you’ll find:

Before ETH 2.0, it issues 5.4 million ETH one year and burns 2.9 million EIP 1559. The annual inflation rate is 2.1%.

After ETH 2.0, it issues 50,000 ETH one year and burns 2.9 million EIP 1559. The annual inflation rate is -2.0%.

According to the bear market (for example, the last 30 days), ETH burning can reach 1.3 million per year, and the inflation rate is -0.7%.

3.The monetary freedom and contract freedom of ETH allows investors to burn ETH by using Protocol EIP 1559, continuously injecting real money into ETH. Thus, the value of blockchain comes into reality and can be calculated.

Although you take Defi, NFT, GameFi all as bubbles and scams and treat ETH as a casino, you can’t deny that there is real value in the casinos which charge gas fees. The more investors engage in, the more stocks of the casino rise.

4.The burning of ETH, with ETH POS+Defi’s massive lock-in, will stimulate an exaggerating unrealized market cap, which is far higher than the first generation BTC, and complete the blockchain’s conversion from the first generation to the second generation.

The wheel of history rolls on.


@CryptoChan:[The core metrics series]: Above: The Price of ETH; Below: Long and Short Term Holders Spent Price Ratio Metric(LTH Spent Price/STH Spent Price). The higher the metric is , the more the capitulation of long term holders will be.

It can be seen that the Spent Price Metric was at its highest level during the bear market bottom in 2014–2015 and 2018–2019.

The bottom in 2014–2015 lasted 308 days with a maximum ETH drawdown of 49.0%, while it lasted 174 days in 2018–2019 with a maximum ETH drawdown of 50.5%.

The current bottom has lasted for 10 days and the maximum ETH drawdown has reached 41.5%.

Note: The Spent Price refers to the average buying price of the ETH sold by the holder per minute.

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